070
FXUS65 KTWC 012109
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
209 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain this afternoon and evening with a few embedded
thunderstorms as a weather system moves through. Some lingering
shower activity will persist into Monday morning, then drier air
moves in for the remainder of the work week. A Flood Watch is
in effect for all of southeast Arizona through 5 AM Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The atmospheric river (AR) event continues this afternoon across
southeast Arizona, aided by a strong subtropical jet just ahead
of a strong upper level trough. Rainfall amounts over the past 6
hours have ranged from 0.5 to 1.0+ with highest amounts of 2.0+
in Oro Valley and in the Catalinas. So far the impacts reported
have been multiple swift water rescues across the area and
rises in creeks, rivers, and washes. As of 2 PM MST, Sabino
Creek has risen to Minor Flood Stage and the latest forecast for
the Gila River near Solomon to rise beginning tonight and
cresting tomorrow morning; These will be features to keep an eye
on this evening and overnight. Continue to heed any road
closures and never drive in flooded roadways.

The heaviest band of precipitation is currently to the east of
the Tucson metro, orientating SW to NE from Sierra Vista to
Clifton. The CAMs continue to be in agreement with this band
continuing to move eastward through the area into New Mexico at
8/9 PM. The Tucson Metro will begin to dry out at 5/6 PM, with
lingering isolated showers through 5 AM.

There were some embedded thunderstorms today, with a handful of
lightning strikes with the heaviest initial band. Thus far,
there has been limited instability was a significant mitigating
factor in any significant thunderstorm development. The greatest
chances for thunderstorms will be where there is significant
cloud breaks that heat the surface and create instability.
Outside of thunderstorm activity, breezy southwest winds are
expected through the afternoon and early evening then switches
to the northeast as the low pressure system swings through.

Lingering showers will diminish Monday morning with no significant
rainfall expected. Thereafter, dry conditions as shortwave ridging
builds in. This shortwave ridging will traverse across the regions
Tuesday with dry conditions still continuing beyond Wednesday and
Thursday as westerly flow prevails. Some semblance of troughing
around Friday but still some differences in the ensembles and
moisture is lacking so will keep PoPs below mentionable levels into
next weekend. Temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees below normal for
most of this week.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 03/00Z.
Expect periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals through 02/02Z
with brief IFR cigs possible especially at KDUG and KOLS.
Numerous SHRA with slight chc -TSRA mainly from KTUS/KOLS
westward through about 01/21Z, then that shifts eastward
thereafter before exiting eastern areas around 02/03Z.
Additional SCT -SHRA possible mainly north and west of KTUS
tonight through 02/12Z. Vis down to 1-2 miles will be possible
in SHRA or TSRA today. SFC winds SWLY 12-20 kts and gusts 25-
30 kts, then gradually diminishing aft 02/06Z. Near stronger
TSRA wind gusts of 30-40 kts will be possible. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today into
tonight, with some areas of heavy rain. The heaviest rain will
be over the higher terrain. Some lingering shower activity will
persist into Monday morning with dry conditions thereafter.
Afternoon high temperatures will lower below normal through the
forecast period. Breezy to locally windy southwest winds
expected today, turning northwest Monday. Minimum RH levels
values into early next week will be 40+ percent.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ501>515.

&&

$$

JT

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson

NWS Tucson (TWC) Office